Shaving with Occam's Razor

Occam's (or Ockham's) razor is a principle attributed to the 14th century logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham.  Ockham was the village in the English county of Surrey where he was born.
The principle states that "Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily."

This has mutated slightly into the concept that "when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better."

Pete at WRSA posted an article on his web site concerning a post at Business Insider/Military & Defense titled, "The Department of Homeland Security is Hard at Work with One Billion New Bullets"
(Yes, it is true the author [not Pete] is a business wanker who doesn't know the difference between "rounds", or cartridges, and "bullets"- the bit of metal at the pointy end which actually goes downrange.)

The author appears to attempt to justify the huge number of rounds ordered by DHS due to the millions of rounds used for training at FLETC - the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Glynco, Georgia, just north of Brunswick on the Georgia Coast. I can't tell from the article whether he believes the amount of new orders for ammunition are reasonable or not, but in the absence of him actually stating it seems inordinately large, I have to guess he is more comfortable with stocks and bonds than math, per se.

Read the article, then consider my comment on his article in response:

OK, I admit I am math-challenged. So, 15 million per year (of ALL calibers) would mean that 450 million should be enough for 30 years, right? Plus, that 450 million is the quantity of hollowpoint handgun ammo (and in one caliber?), NOT training rounds with lead or frangible bullets in both pistol and rifle calibers.

If you were to track the number of .40 caliber hollowpoint ammo expended on the ranges at FLETC, I would not be surprised to discover it is well under 1 million per year. Nowhere close to 450 million.

So, it appears we are still discussing an inordinately large amount of ammunition that obviously is NOT intended for training. 

Add in the many different calibers (a number of which do not match ANY of the calibers used in training at FLETC-feel free to ask me how I know) which we have learned that DHS has ordered (the "orphan" calibers were ordered in much smaller amounts, true), and the millions of .223/5.56x45 rifle rounds for the AR platform, and you need to ask yourself "WHY"? Why the excessive amounts, why the calibers meant for firearms not routinely taught at FLETC or anywhere else, and why now?

This is not "conspiracy theory". This is a reasoned, logical determination that training at FLETC could not possibly be the basis for DHS ordering the ammunition they have recently placed orders for - on TOP of what they normally order.

Apply Occams Razor, and come to your own conclusions.

So, what do you think? I firmly believe Pete at WRSA understands that we aren't talking about training rounds at FLETC. And I also believe he understands that we aren't talking about training rounds at the various agencies under the DHS umbrella. Nor are we talking about training rounds provided to various state and local law enforcement agencies - many of which only qualify their officers once or twice a year with a very limited amount of ammunition. Don't you think word would have gotten out if various police departments and Sheriff's departments had received such largess from DHS?

The military provides its own ammunition, and I seem to recall reading of many complaints from both active and retired members of the military that they were never allowed the amount of time or ammo necessary to attain a decent state of competency. Not that DHS is likely to share the fruits of their budget with the military, but I wanted to get that notion dispelled.

What is the simplest explanation? That DHS wants to be assured of an adequate supply of ammo. The question remains, adequate for what? If it isn't training, it must be for use. What use would the Department of Homeland Security have for so much ammo? Are there a million muslim potential terrorists in this country? I don't think there are, but  even if there are, do they plan on the necessity of expending a billion rounds to deal with them? That would require missing with 999,000,000 million of those rounds (or at least that many non-lethal wounds).

But - how many "domestic terrorists" does DHS anticipate? Let's see: 300 million citizens plus another 20 million or so illegals = 320 million potential domestic terrorists. Well, that would allow just over 3 rounds per potential terrorist. So, either they haven't finished ordering as much as they want, or they have decided they might not have to kill everyone to achieve their aims. If DHS anticipates only having to deal with the legendary III Percent, we are talking a maximum of 9 million. A billion rounds goes quite a ways toward solving that problem, even if most of DHS consists of very lousy shooters. (And as WRSA alludes to it, that supply will feed a lot of insurgents, once things go hot and it is possible to gain access to it.)

[This last I add just for fun.]

So, perhaps we should consider that Ugly Janet has become addicted to watching "Doomsday Preppers" and wants to make sure her bunker has enough ammo stored to last her until the dust all settles. Her Praetorian Guard will surely need that ammunition to protect her until she can emerge into the light of day once more.

Now, for the tinfoil hat brigade, there is another possible reason for that much ammo: if our Illegitimate-in-Chief leader were to invite some foreign individuals to come over here to assist his minions at DHS in quelling whatever uprisings he needed to deal with, perhaps he would actually need the number of rounds being ordered. For an example, consider how many individuals the People's Republic of China could put at arms. Of course, they wouldn't send them all over here, but I imagine they could probably easily muster 1 million out of a population of 2 billion, don't you? The logistics would be hairy, but if they are allowed to live off the land, like Sherman's troops on their March to the Sea, they could probably get by just fine.